Why is There a Chicken Shortage in 2023?

Chicken has been a main source of protein for many American families for a long time. From chicken noodle soup to fried chicken, this meat has become a big part of our diets and food culture. But in 2023, consumers have been having a hard time finding chicken and have seen huge price increases at restaurants and grocery stores. Which brings up the question of what is causing a chicken shortage in 2023.

A Perfect Storm of Challenges

The chicken shortage is due to a series of events that have messed up the supply chain and cut down on stock at many points along the way, from the farm to the table.

Avian Influenza Outbreaks

One of the major triggers has been repeated outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) on chicken farms since early 2022. This contagious poultry disease has forced farmers to cull millions of egg-laying hens and broiler chickens to contain the spread. With lower numbers of chickens being raised, there is reduced supply for processing plants and less meat making it to consumers.

Processing Plant Disruptions

Chicken processing plants have also faced production challenges and capacity shortfalls. Labor shortages, COVID-19 outbreaks, and retention issues have slowed processing speeds. Additionally, a fire destroyed a major poultry plant in North Carolina in January 2023. With fewer processing plants running at full tilt, there’s a bottleneck in transforming chickens into sellable packaged products for stores.

Feed Shortages and Rising Costs

The war in Ukraine disrupted grain supplies from that major exporter region. This contributed to higher corn and soybean prices, which are primary components of chicken feed. With pricier feed, farmers have seen their input costs rise. Some have reduced flock sizes in response.

Transportation and Distribution Snags

Getting chicken products from point A to point B has also posed challenges A shortage of truck drivers and soaring fuel prices have driven up transportation costs Bad winter weather events have compounded distribution issues across the country. All of these factors add friction to getting chicken where it needs to go.

Surging Demand Amid Shortages

As chicken supplies tightened due to production snags, demand rose as consumers returned to pre-pandemic purchasing and dining habits. Restaurants reopened dining rooms and saw sales rebound. Households sought out chicken as an affordable and nutritious protein choice amid high inflation. This combination of spiking demand and reduced supply amplified pressures across the chicken supply chain.

Regional Impacts and Availability Issues

While not a blanket nationwide shortage, the lack of chicken inventory and availability issues have varied by region.

• Parts of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic states have been hardest hit by production losses tied to avian influenza outbreaks Whole birds and wings have been in shorter supply in these areas,

• The problems have been worse in places that depend on a few big processing plants than in places that have a wider network of processors.

• Independent grocers and smaller regional restaurant chains are more vulnerable to intermittent product shortages than national chains with greater bargaining power and distribution capabilities.

• Specialty chicken items sold at higher price points, like organic and air-chilled chickens, have maintained a steadier supply versus more cost-sensitive products.

So while the shortages are not uniform coast to coast, many consumers have encountered select products being out of stock, from frozen chicken breasts to lunch meat deli options.

Forecasting How Long Shortages and High Prices Will Persist

Many people in the business world say that the chicken supply shortage is not over yet. Because of the effects of avian flu that are still being felt and stable consumer demand, the market will remain tight until at least the middle of 2023.

Here are some of the key factors that will determine when balance returns to the chicken market:

• Eradicating avian influenza: No new outbreaks would ease supply constraints. But sporadic outbreaks could prolong shortfalls in impacted regions.

• Rebuilding flock populations: It takes time to replace chickens lost to culling. Several months are required to breed new chicks and raise them to market weight.

• Increasing processing capacity: Adding labor and expanding operating hours will help. But major capacity expansion requires large investments and long timelines.

• Feed costs outlook: Prices are forecast to remain elevated in 2023, contributing to higher chicken prices. But increases in crop yields could relieve pressure.

• Consumer demand patterns: A recession slowing restaurant and household spending would ease demand. But ongoing strong chicken demand would maintain supply pressures.

While the chicken shortage is frustrating for many shoppers and diners, experts say it is unlikely to evolve into a crisis that leaves grocery shelves completely bare. Targeted shortfalls of certain products and high prices will continue to be the main pain points until balance is restored over the long term.

Strategies for Finding Affordable Chicken

Here are some tips for consumers aiming to secure chicken on a budget during the shortage:

• Be flexible and opt for larger packs of chicken pieces rather than specific cuts like boneless breasts.

• Try out cheaper chicken parts like leg quarters, wings, and bone-in thighs when possible.

• Look for marked down chicken nearing its sell-by date and cook or freeze it promptly.

• Seek out off-brand chicken products rather than pricier name brands.

• Use whole chickens and debone or slice them yourself to maximize value.

• Supplement with cheaper alternative protein sources like eggs, canned tuna, beans, or tofu.

• Use coupons, loyalty discounts, and shop chicken specials at different grocery stores.

• Stock up and freeze extra chicken when you see a good sale.

With smart shopping strategies, consumers can still find affordable chicken options for their families despite the shortages plaguing the market in 2023. While market forces largely drive this shortage, we can adapt our own habits to navigate it.